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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
Detalles originales del mercado en inglés
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved May 9, 2026 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Next Prime Minister of Hungary·#567563

Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría

No
Final answerResolved May 9, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?” resolved No on May 9, 2026, after $13.9M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Next Prime Minister of Hungary event family.

ResolvedMay 9, 2026
Volume$13.9M
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL+0.0%
0¢2¢4¢6¢8¢4/105/9Settled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics15.5%-6.0%$400.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics95.5%+85.0%$375.2KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 10, 2026

László Toroczkai is the next Prime Minister of Hungary according to the final outcome of the resolved prediction market. This political prediction contract reached its official resolution on the date of May 9, 2026, at exactly 17:37:45 UTC. The specific question on the platform asked users to forecast the identity of the future leader of the Hungarian government. Before the final close of active trading, market participants accumulated a total volume of 13,863,122.73 dollars in transactions. The database did not preserve a full price path detailing the historical price fluctuations of this political contract. The official settlement record for this specific political market remains completely firm. By backing the positive resolution, the crowd of active prediction market traders correctly predicted the result.

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $13.9M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.
03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price0.05% (0.05¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $25.5M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventYes

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $24.6M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
May 9, 2026No settlement with $13.9M traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $21.7M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $9.3M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $6.2M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Next Prime MinisterNo

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election? · $67.4M traded · Apr 30, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Next Prime MinisterYes

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election? · $36.4M traded · Apr 30, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive