MarketsEventsResolvedNarrativeLearnResearch

Navigate

Prediction markets, watchlists, and tools

MarketsEventsResolvedNarrativeLearnResearchWatchlist & AlertsHeatmap

CoinMarketCap for prediction markets.

Track every Polymarket prediction market with live prices, rankings, resolved outcomes, and research.

Trade on Polymarket↗

Markets

  • Rankings
  • Events
  • Topics
  • Ecosystem

Predictions

  • 2028 election odds
  • Bitcoin odds
  • Fed rate odds
  • Trump odds
  • World Cup odds

Resolved

  • Overview
  • Recently resolved
  • High volume
  • Biggest surprises
  • Calibration
  • Monthly archive

Learn

  • Learn hub
  • How markets work
  • How to read odds
  • Is Polymarket accurate?
  • Glossary

Research

  • Research hub
  • Methodology
  • Price discovery
  • Insider trading
  • Brand kit

© 2026 Polyguana. Prediction market intelligence — not investment advice.

Referral disclosure: Polyguana may earn commissions from eligible Polymarket signups and trading activity.

Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
Detalles originales del mercado en inglés
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved May 9, 2026 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Next Prime Minister of Hungary·#567560

Próximo Primer Ministro de Hungría

No
Final answerResolved May 9, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?” resolved No on May 9, 2026, after $25.5M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Next Prime Minister of Hungary event family.

ResolvedMay 9, 2026
Volume$25.5M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 29.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 30-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.8%
0¢8¢17¢25¢33¢4/104/224/254/295/25/55/9Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics15.5%-6.0%$400.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics95.5%+85.0%$375.2KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 10, 2026

This prediction market asked if the next Prime Minister of Hungary would be Viktor Orbán. The trade was conducted under the event name Next Prime Minister of Hungary. The market resolved on May 9, 2026, at exactly 17:36:51 UTC. The data list the final outcome of the contract as Yes. The settlement notes record that the market resolved No on May 9, 2026. The total volume of trades for this event reached 25,456,113.71 dollars. The market price sat near 29.5 percent before it started to drop. The contract price eventually fell to 0 percent into settlement. This change in the contract price represented a 30 point move. The settlement documentation lists the volume before settlement as 25.5 million dollars. The market finished with a final traded price of 0 percent.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price29.5% (29.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Same eventYes

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $24.6M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $21.7M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
May 9, 2026No settlement with $25.5M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
29 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $13.9M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $9.3M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary · $6.2M traded · May 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Next Prime MinisterNo

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election? · $67.4M traded · Apr 30, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Next Prime MinisterYes

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election? · $36.4M traded · Apr 30, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive