Data exports, methodology, and calibration tools for prediction market research
Download market data as CSV. All exports include timestamp and source metadata.
Market Snapshot CSV
Top 100 live markets by 24h volume with prices, liquidity, spread, precision score, and related event fields.
Download CSVMarket History CSV
Historical price series for the top 12 markets by volume, exported as time-series rows with liquidity snapshots.
Download CSVDefinitions, formulas, data sources, and known pitfalls. Understand how we compute precision scores, price basis, and microstructure metrics.
A search-focused guide to how prediction markets express consensus, when market prices are reliable, and how topical landing pages turn headline demand into usable live probabilities.
Measure forecasting skill with Brier scores and reliability curves.
Brier Score Calculator
Compute Brier scores at fixed horizons (1h, 24h, 7d before resolution) against resolved markets.
Reliability Curve
Predicted probability vs actual resolution rate, bucketed by decile.