¿Primer Ministro de Japón después de unas elecciones anticipadas?

Final answerResolved Feb 18, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?” resolved No on Feb 18, 2026, after $200.1K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Prime Minister of Japan after snap election? event family.

ResolvedFeb 18, 2026

Volume$200.1K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-98.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.2MTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics97.75%+76.4%$503.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics14.7%-5.0%$319.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $200.1K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Feb 18, 2026No settlement with $200.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

February 18, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price4.5% (4.5¢)Observed

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