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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Nov 22, 2024 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·# of Republican Senate seats after Election?·#501697

Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election?

No
Final answerResolved Nov 22, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election?” resolved No on Nov 22, 2024, after $760.9K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the # of Republican Senate seats after Election? event family.

ResolvedNov 22, 2024
Volume$760.9K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketOpen official resultsBrowse related resolved
Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 28.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 28-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.8%
0¢8¢16¢24¢32¢10/2310/2711/111/511/911/1411/1811/22Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics77.5%-7.5%$349.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending in Politics2.25%+0.1%$304.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$278.6KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultssource linked

Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Open official results
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.
Resolved
Nov 22, 2024No settlement with $760.9K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 22, 2024 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price28.5% (28.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?
Same eventNo

Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?

# of Republican Senate seats after Election? · $4.6M traded · Nov 22, 2024

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?

# of Republican Senate seats after Election? · $2.3M traded · Nov 22, 2024

Open resolved page
Spike signal
28 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.7% (0.7¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Public contextNational Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsObservedOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.Open official results
Same eventNo

Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?

# of Republican Senate seats after Election? · $1.5M traded · Nov 22, 2024

Open resolved page
Same eventYes

Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?

# of Republican Senate seats after Election? · $1.3M traded · Nov 22, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: RepublicansNo

Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?

Electoral College Margin of Victory? · $21.0M traded · Nov 7, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: SenateYes

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House

Balance of Power: 2024 Election · $11.1M traded · Nov 14, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: SenateNo

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House

Balance of Power: 2024 Election · $9.3M traded · Nov 14, 2024

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive