Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved Yes, with $15.1M traded before close.
Last observed Yes
99.95% (99.95¢)
Settled result
Yes
Context
Headline and statement context
Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 11, 2026
The crowd maintained absolute confidence that Trump would not visit China just before the market reached settlement. The prediction event was officially titled Will Trump visit China by. The official question asked if Trump would visit China by May 15. The official question text ended with a question mark. The final resolution occurred prior to the arrival of the specified deadline date. Market participants traded a total volume of 15,068,494.06 dollars before the bidding process closed. A full price path was not preserved for this specific market in the archive. The settlement record remains completely firm despite the missing historical price data. The resolution time was recorded in the UTC timezone. The market resolved No on May 13, 2026, at 17:18:32.
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketEvidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
May 13, 2026 at 5:15 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive