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Detalhes em inglês
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved May 13, 2026 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Will Trump visit China by...?·#1611527

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Yes
Final answerResolved May 13, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Will Trump visit China by May 31?” resolved Yes on May 13, 2026, after $7.6M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Will Trump visit China by...? event family.

ResolvedMay 13, 2026
Volume$7.6M
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes99.95% (99.95¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+5.3%
92¢94¢96¢98¢100¢5/65/85/95/105/115/125/125/13Settled

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics83.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics15.05%-6.0%$402.8KTrade on Polyguana →Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Trending in Politics5.05%-3.4%$320.4KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 10, 2026

On May 13, 2026, the prediction market asking if Trump would visit China by May 31 settled. The event name in the database is Will Trump visit China by. The resolution occurred at 16:18:15 UTC. The timezone offset is recorded as plus zero hours. The resolution date occurred prior to the travel deadline. The final outcome of the market resolved to No. The contract was active prior to the resolution time. The total volume reached seven million six hundred twenty-six thousand two hundred twenty-four dollars and five cents. The settlement record remains firm. The platform did not preserve a full price path for the contract. Trading ceased on the resolution date. The market concluded at a final traded price of zero.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 13, 2026 at 4:15 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price94.9% (94.9¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Same eventYes

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Will Trump visit China by...? · $15.1M traded · May 13, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Will Trump visit China by...? · $12.8M traded · May 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same event
Original Polymarket market
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
May 13, 2026Yes settlement with $7.6M traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $3.2M closing liquidity.

Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$3.2MLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle99.65% (99.65¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$3.2MObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Yes

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Will Trump visit China by...? · $2.3M traded · May 13, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpNo

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $127.7M traded · Mar 4, 2026

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Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2024 · $1.5B traded · Nov 6, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Will Trump release Epstein files by...? · $90.9M traded · Dec 24, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Who will be inaugurated as President? · $400.4M traded · Jan 20, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive