Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
The market sat near 6.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 94-point move.
Last observed Yes
99.95% (99.95¢)
Settled result
Yes
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.
Context
Official observation context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Official U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.
Open weather sourceThe archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $366.9K closing liquidity.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
May 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
