Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

Yes

Final answerResolved Jun 28, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 28, 2026. Event family: Jordan vs. Argentina. $7.6M traded before settlement. Question: Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

ResolvedJun 28, 2026

Volume$7.6M

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved Yes, with $7.6M traded before close.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+21.2%

Yes100.0¢No0.0¢

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJun 28, 2026

Yes

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWCGAME-26JUN27JORARG-ARG50% (50¢)

Yes

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWCGAME-26JUN27JORARG-ARG50% (50¢)

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 28, 2026Yes settlement with $7.6M traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $615.9K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$615.9KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 28, 2026 at 4:10 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price82.5% (82.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle84.5% (84.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle99.3% (99.3¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score15 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$615.9KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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