Movement
No-to-Yes turn
The market sat near 23.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 77-point move.
Yes fell to 23.5% before the market settled Yes at 100%, a 77-point reversal.
Lowest Yes
23.5% (23.5¢)
Curve low
Settled Yes
100% (100¢)
Final Yes price
Swing
77 pts
Yes probability
Last observed Yes
49% (49¢)
Settled result
Yes
How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 49% confident in Yes at the close.
Context
Headline and statement context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
February 28, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive