Movement
Large upward reprice
The market sat near 53.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 47-point move.
The archived price moved 47 points between the stored anchor and settlement.
Lowest Yes
53.5% (53.5¢)
Curve low
Settled Yes
100% (100¢)
Final Yes price
Swing
47 pts
Yes probability
Last observed Yes
99.95% (99.95¢)
Settled result
Yes
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.
Context
Headline and statement context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
February 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
