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英文原始市場詳情
Resolved answer·2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner·#1088117

Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

No
Final answerResolved Jul 4, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jul 4, 2026. Event family: 2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner. $162.4K traded before settlement. Question: Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

ResolvedJul 4, 2026
Volume$162.4K
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketOpen resolution sourceBrowse related resolved
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-80.0%
0¢2¢4¢6¢8¢6/296/306/307/17/17/17/47/47/4Settled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $162.4K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jul 4, 2026No settlement with $162.4K traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $345.9K closing liquidity.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 4, 2026 at 4:50 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price0.25% (0.25¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Same eventNo

Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner · $9.2M traded · Jun 30, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner · $3.8M traded · Jul 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$345.9KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.45% (0.45¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$345.9KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same eventNo

Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner · $1.9M traded · Jul 2, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Xinyu Wang be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner · $1.9M traded · Jul 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: WimbledonYes

Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner · $409.9K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: WimbledonYes

Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner · $344.9K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: WimbledonNo

Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?

2025 Wimbledon Winner (M) · $4.5M traded · Jul 13, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive