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Chicago Cubs – Pittsburgh Pirates

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)

100% implied probability — Chicago Cubs leads

Resolution date: May 27, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

Event cluster: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Topic: baseball

24-hour volume: $10.8K

Total liquidity: $254.5K

Resolution criteria: In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 27 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Related markets from this event:

  • Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
  • Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)
  • Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
  • Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
  • Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5

Last refreshed: June 28, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC

英文原始市場詳情
Back to markets

Source

supabase-shell

Last refreshed

Jun 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Market read · polling·SportsAwaiting resolution
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)

The crowd puts Chicago Cubs at 99.95% · updated 705h ago · good book

Lead probability
99.95%
Chicago Cubs
Flat 24h
70/100Good

Probability tape

Probability over time

Polling24h 0.0%
Spread0.1%Tight
Depth ±2%$101.8KModerate
Freshness705h agoStale
24h volume$10.8Kmatched
Liquidity$254.5Kbook depth
updated 705h agoresolves May 27, 2026methodologyBetter than most Sports markets
What moved this marketrecent signals

Official schedule window and game-status watch

Official league source

Event cluster

Related markets

6
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$65.7K

100%+49.5%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$16.9K

99.95%0.0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$13.6K

100%+62.5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$10.7K

100%+58.5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$9.5K

100%+74.0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$7.9K

100%+73.0%

Outcome book

Best quotes

Top 2

Chicago Cubs

99.95¢

0.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates

0.05¢

0.0%
View on Polymarket

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Research brief

About this market

medium confidence

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) The lead outcome is Chicago Cubs at 100%. No high-confidence external driver has been matched yet, so the brief leans on rules, timing, and current pricing. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 5/27/2026, 10:40:00 PM.

2 sourcesUpdated 1d ago

Resolution criteria

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 27 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Watch next

Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 5/27/2026, 10:40:00 PM.

May 27, 2026

Key uncertainty

No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.

More: edge cases, catalysts

Edge cases

  • In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 27 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 4 or more runs.
  • If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates".
  • If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.

Recent catalysts

  • Official schedule window and game-status watch — Official league source