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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Dec 28, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Bucks vs. Bulls·#988842

Bucks vs. Bulls

Yes
Final answerResolved Dec 28, 2025

A close one — the market was only 44.5% confident in Yes at the close.

“Bucks vs. Bulls” resolved Yes on Dec 28, 2025, after $1.9M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedDec 28, 2025
Volume$1.9M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Bucks vs. Bulls
Market image
Yes
Last observed Yes44.5% (44.5¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 31.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 69-point move.

Yes 44.5¢ALL+7.2%
30¢34¢38¢42¢46¢12/2112/2712/28Lowest pointSettled

Last observed Yes

44.5% (44.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.25%0.0%$273.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending now7.45%+0.3%$252.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now85.5%+4.0%$244.3KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Dec 28, 2025Yes settlement with $1.9M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

December 28, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price41.5% (41.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Bucks vs. Bulls
Same contract familyNo

Bucks vs. Bulls

Bucks vs. Bulls · $2.3M traded · Mar 2, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: BucksNo

Bucks vs. Pacers

Bucks vs. Pacers · $2.5M traded · Apr 30, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: BucksNo

Pacers vs. Bucks

Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle31.5% (31.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price44.5% (44.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty55.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score13 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Pacers vs. Bucks · $1.3M traded · Apr 26, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: BucksYes

Celtics vs. Bucks

Celtics vs. Bucks · $6.6M traded · Mar 3, 2026

Open resolved page
Same topic: NBANo

Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals?

NBA Champion · $378.0M traded · Apr 17, 2025

Open resolved page
Same topic: NBANo

Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals?

NBA Champion · $154.2M traded · Apr 2, 2025

Open resolved page
Same topic: NBANo

Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals?

NBA Champion · $130.2M traded · Mar 22, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive