How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on May 17, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Eurovision Winner 2026.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? — Resolved market

Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?

Final answerResolved May 17, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on May 17, 2026. Event family: Eurovision Winner 2026. $8.4M traded before settlement. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?

ResolvedMay 17, 2026

Volume$8.4M

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-66.7%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Context

Public context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $8.4M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 17, 2026No settlement with $8.4M traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $675.1K closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 17, 2026 at 3:30 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.15% (0.15¢)Observed

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