How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Dec 12, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Yes — Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? (Dec 12, 2025)

Movement

Large upward reprice

The market sat near 48% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 52-point move.

Large upward reprice

The archived price moved 52 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Lowest Yes

48% (48¢)

Curve low

Settled Yes

100% (100¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

52 pts

Yes probability

Yes 100.0¢ALL+108.2%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics15.55%-6.0%$400.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics95.5%+85.0%$375.2KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Dec 12, 2025Yes settlement with $4.0M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

December 12, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price48% (48¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.