How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Mar 31, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? (Mar 31, 2026)

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Final answerResolved Mar 31, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?” resolved No on Mar 31, 2026, after $620.7K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Which company has the best AI model end of March? event family.

ResolvedMar 31, 2026

Volume$620.7K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-66.7%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · AIThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Trending in AI90.5%+5.5%$47.1KTrade on Polyguana →Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Trending in AI2.35%+1.7%$41.4KTrade on Polyguana →Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Trending in AI7.05%+4.2%$36.7KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $620.7K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 31, 2026No settlement with $620.7K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.15% (0.15¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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