MarketsEventsResolvedNarrativeLearnResearch

Navigate

Prediction markets, watchlists, and tools

MarketsEventsResolvedNarrativeLearnResearchWatchlist & AlertsHeatmap

CoinMarketCap for prediction markets.

Track every Polymarket prediction market with live prices, rankings, resolved outcomes, and research.

Trade on Polymarket↗

Markets

  • Rankings
  • Events
  • Topics
  • Ecosystem

Predictions

  • 2028 election odds
  • Bitcoin odds
  • Fed rate odds
  • Trump odds
  • World Cup odds

Resolved

  • Overview
  • Recently resolved
  • High volume
  • Biggest surprises
  • Calibration
  • Monthly archive

Learn

  • Learn hub
  • How markets work
  • How to read odds
  • Is Polymarket accurate?
  • Glossary

Research

  • Research hub
  • Methodology
  • Price discovery
  • Insider trading
  • Brand kit

© 2026 Polyguana. Prediction market intelligence — not investment advice.

Referral disclosure: Polyguana may earn commissions from eligible Polymarket signups and trading activity.

Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Dec 8, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?·#784181

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?

Yes
Final answerResolved Dec 8, 2025

A close one — the market was only 63.5% confident in Yes at the close.

“MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?” resolved Yes on Dec 8, 2025, after $4.2M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedDec 8, 2025
Volume$4.2M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes63.5% (63.5¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 50% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 50-point move.

Yes 63.5¢ALL+27.0%
Yes63.5¢No36.5¢
33¢42¢50¢58¢67¢12/112/712/8Lowest pointSettled

Last observed Yes

63.5% (63.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now17.5%-1.5%$392.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.55%-0.1%$383.1KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now35%-15.5%$320.3KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Dec 8, 2025Yes settlement with $4.2M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Same entity: DecemberNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in December? · $161.6M traded · Dec 10, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? · $375.8M traded · Jun 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle50.5% (50.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle63.5% (63.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price63.5% (63.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty63.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score13 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: DecemberYes

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Will Trump release Epstein files by...? · $90.9M traded · Dec 24, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: DecemberNo

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in December? · $133.2M traded · Dec 10, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: DecemberYes

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in December? · $54.6M traded · Dec 10, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: DecemberNo

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

US x Venezuela military engagement by...? · $51.1M traded · Jan 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: DecemberNo

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in December? · $44.5M traded · Dec 10, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive