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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Dec 1, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?·#658923

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?

No
Final answerResolved Dec 1, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?” resolved No on Dec 1, 2025, after $2.4M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedDec 1, 2025
Volume$2.4M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 27.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 28-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.8%
0¢8¢15¢23¢31¢11/111/3012/1Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now77.5%-8.0%$305.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending now2.15%+0.3%$300.8KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now21.65%-7.4%$252.4KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Dec 1, 2025No settlement with $2.4M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

December 1, 2025 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price27.5% (27.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Same entity: BitcoinNo

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? · $375.8M traded · Jun 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: NovemberNo

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?

Fed Interest Rates: November 2024 · $134.0M traded · Nov 7, 2024

Open resolved page
Spike signal
27 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.3% (0.3¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: BitcoinNo

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by ___? · $44.2M traded · Jan 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025? · $31.4M traded · Jan 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?

What price will Bitcoin hit in February? · $28.8M traded · Mar 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: NovemberYes

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Israel military action against Iraq before November? · $27.8M traded · Oct 30, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?

What price will Bitcoin hit in January? · $26.7M traded · Feb 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive