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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Oct 18, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?·#635127

Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?

No
Final answerResolved Oct 18, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in No just before settlement.

“Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?” resolved No on Oct 18, 2025, after $1.0M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedOct 18, 2025
Volume$1.0M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.1% (0.1¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 84.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 85-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 84.5% before the market settled No at 0%, a 85-point reversal.

Peak Yes

84.5% (84.5¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

85 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%
0¢22¢45¢67¢90¢10/1410/1410/1510/1610/1710/1710/18Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.1% (0.1¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now82.5%+5.0%$849.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now17.15%+3.2%$492.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending now7.75%+0.5%$476.0KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Oct 18, 2025No settlement with $1.0M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 18, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price84.5% (84.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Same entity: OverNo

Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

MegaETH public sale total commitments? · $16.9M traded · Oct 30, 2025

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Same entity: OverNo

Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

MegaETH public sale total commitments? · $14.8M traded · Oct 30, 2025

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Spike signal
84 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
20 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle13.5% (13.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.9%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score13 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: OverYes

Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

MegaETH public sale total commitments? · $13.4M traded · Oct 30, 2025

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Same entity: OverYes

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Monad public sale total commitments above ___ ? · $8.1M traded · Nov 23, 2025

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Same entity: OverYes

Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Total commitments for the Ranger public sale on MetaDAO · $6.1M traded · Jan 10, 2026

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Same entity: OverYes

Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

MegaETH public sale total commitments? · $7.3M traded · Oct 30, 2025

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Same entity: OverNo

Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?

Monad public sale total commitments above ___ ? · $5.1M traded · Nov 23, 2025

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Browse the full resolved archive