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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Oct 18, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Bitcoin price on October 18?·#631785

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 18?

No
Final answerResolved Oct 18, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 18?” resolved No on Oct 18, 2025, after $904.9K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Bitcoin price on October 18? event family.

ResolvedOct 18, 2025
Volume$904.9K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 18?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved No, with $904.9K traded before close.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.4%
0¢3¢7¢10¢13¢10/1110/1310/1410/1510/1610/1710/1810/18Settled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now16.5%-1.0%$344.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now36.5%-13.5%$338.3KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now79.5%+1.0%$170.3KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Oct 18, 2025No settlement with $904.9K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Resolved checkpoint

Last refreshed

October 18, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price8.5% (8.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Same entity: BitcoinNo

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? · $375.8M traded · Jun 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: OctoberNo

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in October? · $102.2M traded · Oct 31, 2025

Open resolved page
Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
29 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.2% (0.2¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: OctoberNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in October? · $52.6M traded · Oct 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: OctoberYes

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in October? · $51.6M traded · Oct 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: OctoberNo

No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in October? · $46.1M traded · Oct 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by ___? · $44.2M traded · Jan 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025? · $31.4M traded · Jan 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive