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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Oct 3, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Padres vs. Cubs·#618944

Padres vs. Cubs

No
Final answerResolved Oct 3, 2025

The crowd called it — 94.05% confident in No just before settlement.

“Padres vs. Cubs” resolved No on Oct 3, 2025, after $1.6M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedOct 3, 2025
Volume$1.6M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Padres vs. Cubs
Market image
No
Last observed Yes5.95% (5.95¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 54% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 54-point move.

Yes 5.9¢ALL-88.1%
1¢15¢30¢44¢59¢10/110/110/210/210/210/210/3Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

5.95% (5.95¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now77.5%-7.0%$325.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$302.3KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$279.3KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Oct 3, 2025No settlement with $1.6M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 3, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Same entity: PadresYes

Padres vs. Diamondbacks

Padres vs. Diamondbacks · $1.8M traded · Aug 6, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: CubsNo

Cubs vs. Blue Jays

Cubs vs. Blue Jays · $1.5M traded · Aug 14, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: PadresNo
Spike signal
48 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
7 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle49% (49¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle5.95% (5.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price5.95% (5.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty94.05%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score43 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Cardinals vs. Padres

Cardinals vs. Padres · $1.5M traded · Aug 4, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: PadresNo

Giants vs. Padres

Giants vs. Padres · $1.2M traded · Aug 22, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: PadresYes

Padres vs. Diamondbacks

Padres vs. Diamondbacks · $1.2M traded · Aug 7, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: CubsNo

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals · $2.1M traded · Jun 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: CubsYes

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates · $1.2M traded · May 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive