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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Oct 14, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·"Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office·#618542

Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?

No
Final answerResolved Oct 14, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?” resolved No on Oct 14, 2025, after $593.7K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office event family.

ResolvedOct 14, 2025
Volume$593.7K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

Large downward reprice

The market sat near 47.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 48-point move.

Large downward reprice

The archived price moved 48 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Peak Yes

47.5% (47.5¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

48 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%
0¢13¢26¢39¢53¢10/110/310/510/710/910/1110/14Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · CultureThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Trending in Culture2.05%-0.2%$58.1KTrade on Polyguana →Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?Trending in Culture93.85%+16.3%$8.9KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Oct 14, 2025No settlement with $593.7K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 14, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price47.5% (47.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxNo

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office · $5.9M traded · Dec 23, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxNo

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office · $4.0M traded · Dec 23, 2025

Open resolved page
Spike signal
47 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxNo

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office · $3.1M traded · Dec 23, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxYes

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office · $2.3M traded · Dec 23, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxNo

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office · $1.8M traded · Dec 23, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxNo

Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?

'Joker: Folie à Deux' Opening Weekend Box Office · $3.1M traded · Oct 8, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Opening Weekend BoxNo

Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend?

'Joker: Folie à Deux' Opening Weekend Box Office Cont. · $2.0M traded · Oct 8, 2024

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive