How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 15, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: AZ-07 Special Election: Adelita Grijalva margin of victory?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. National Archives 2024 Electoral College results is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 30% and 35%? (Oct 15, 2025)

Movement

Large downward reprice

The market sat near 49% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 49-point move.

Large downward reprice

The archived price moved 49 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Peak Yes

49% (49¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

49 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending in Politics16.5%-1.0%$344.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending in Politics36.5%-13.5%$338.3KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics79.5%+1.0%$170.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultssource linked

Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Open official results

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Resolved

Oct 15, 2025No settlement with $531.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 15, 2025 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price49% (49¢)Observed

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Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.