How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 31, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Which company has best AI model end of October?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? (Oct 31, 2025)

Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31?

Final answerResolved Oct 31, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31?” resolved No on Oct 31, 2025, after $1.1M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Which company has best AI model end of October? event family.

ResolvedOct 31, 2025

Volume$1.1M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-75.0%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · AIThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Trending in AI94.5%0.0%$26.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Trending in AI4.85%+0.2%$17.8KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $1.1M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Oct 31, 2025No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 31, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.2% (0.2¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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