How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 21, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Next Japanese Prime Minister.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? (Oct 21, 2025)

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 64% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 64-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 64% before the market settled No at 0%, a 64-point reversal.

Peak Yes

64% (64¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

64 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending in Politics16.5%-1.0%$344.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending in Politics36.5%-9.0%$338.3KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics79.5%+1.0%$170.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Oct 21, 2025No settlement with $582.7K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price64% (64¢)Observed

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