How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 21, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Next Japanese Prime Minister.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan? (Oct 21, 2025)

Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?

Final answerResolved Oct 21, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?” resolved No on Oct 21, 2025, after $578.9K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Next Japanese Prime Minister event family.

ResolvedOct 21, 2025

Volume$578.9K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-66.7%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics77.5%-4.0%$1.4MTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%-0.2%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.05%0.0%$999.5KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $578.9K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Oct 21, 2025No settlement with $578.9K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.15% (0.15¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.