How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 1, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Israel strikes Iran by September 30?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Israel strikes Iran by September 30? (Oct 1, 2025)

Israel strikes Iran by September 30?

Final answerResolved Oct 1, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.5% confident in No just before settlement.

“Israel strikes Iran by September 30?” resolved No on Oct 1, 2025, after $1.1M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedOct 1, 2025

Volume$1.1M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved No, with $1.1M traded before close.

Yes 0.5¢ALL-96.6%

Last observed Yes

0.5% (0.5¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics96.3%+66.8%$494.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics15.15%-5.5%$398.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Oct 1, 2025No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.6¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 1, 2025 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price14.5% (14.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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