How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 30, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: ECB Interest Rates: October 2025.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Federal Reserve FOMC calendar is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting? (Oct 30, 2025)

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?

Final answerResolved Oct 30, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?” resolved No on Oct 30, 2025, after $844.5K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the ECB Interest Rates: October 2025 event family.

ResolvedOct 30, 2025

Volume$844.5K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-91.7%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

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Context

FOMC consensus context

This was a policy-meeting consensus market: traders had already priced No as the dominant public expectation before the FOMC result. Federal Reserve FOMC calendar is the right external anchor, while the archived curve shows whether the crowd ever seriously doubted the outcome.

Federal Reserve FOMC calendarsource linked

Official policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.

Open Fed source

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Federal Reserve FOMC calendarOfficial policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.

Resolved

Oct 30, 2025No settlement with $844.5K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.6% (0.6¢)Observed

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