How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Oct 1, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? (Oct 1, 2025)

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?

Final answerResolved Oct 1, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?” resolved No on Oct 1, 2025, after $2.6M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedOct 1, 2025

Volume$2.6M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.1%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · GeopoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Trending in Geopolitics7.5%-0.5%$80.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?Trending in Geopolitics8.5%+2.5%$47.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Trending in Geopolitics3.15%+3.8%$40.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $2.6M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Oct 1, 2025No settlement with $2.6M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

October 1, 2025 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price5.5% (5.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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