Movement
No-to-Yes turn
The market sat near 11.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 89-point move.
Yes fell to 11.5% before the market settled Yes at 100%, a 89-point reversal.
Lowest Yes
11.5% (11.5¢)
Curve low
Settled Yes
100% (100¢)
Final Yes price
Swing
89 pts
Yes probability
Last observed Yes
99.8% (99.8¢)
Settled result
Yes
Context
Headline and statement context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.
Open official resultsThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
October 25, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
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