How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Dec 19, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship Winner.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Mike Matusow win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? (Dec 19, 2025)

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL+0.0%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · CultureThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?Trending in Culture94%+72.5%$15.2KTrade on Polyguana →Will "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?Trending in Culture6.5%+70.5%$10.2KTrade on Polyguana →Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?Trending in Culture97.65%+20.6%$9.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $4.0M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Dec 19, 2025No settlement with $4.0M traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

December 19, 2025 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.05% (0.05¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.