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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Feb 10, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Super Bowl LIX MVP·#519818

Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?

No
Final answerResolved Feb 10, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.75% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?” resolved No on Feb 10, 2025, after $786.2K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Super Bowl LIX MVP event family.

ResolvedFeb 10, 2025
Volume$786.2K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.25% (0.25¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 25% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 25-point move.

Yes 0.3¢ALL-98.3%
0¢7¢14¢21¢28¢1/252/92/10Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.25% (0.25¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now84%-6.0%$1.0MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now15.65%-6.0%$396.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Trending now5.15%-3.5%$319.4KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Feb 10, 2025No settlement with $786.2K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

February 10, 2025 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price15% (15¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Super Bowl LIX Winner
Same entity: Super Bowl LixNo

Super Bowl LIX Winner

Super Bowl LIX Winner · $17.5M traded · Feb 10, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: MvpNo

Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?

Big Game MVP · $1.2M traded · Feb 9, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Super Bowl LixNo
Spike signal
25 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle25% (25¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.25% (0.25¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.25% (0.25¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.75%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score25 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Which companies will run ads during Super Bowl LIX? · $2.0M traded · Feb 13, 2025

Open resolved page
Same topic: NFLNo

Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $139.3M traded · Dec 16, 2024

Open resolved page
Same topic: NFLNo

Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $124.0M traded · Nov 30, 2024

Open resolved page
Same topic: NFLNo

Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $115.3M traded · Dec 9, 2024

Open resolved page
Same topic: NFLNo

Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $119.5M traded · Dec 8, 2024

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive