The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.
“Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?” resolved No on Feb 13, 2025, after $774.0K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Which Senators will vote to confirm RFK Jr.? event family.
Large downward reprice
The market sat near 58% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 58-point move.
The archived price moved 58 points between the stored anchor and settlement.
Peak Yes
58% (58¢)
Curve peak
Settled No
0% (0¢)
Final Yes price
Swing
58 pts
Yes probability
Last observed Yes
0.05% (0.05¢)
Settled result
No
Headline and statement context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
February 13, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
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