How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Dec 31, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: Which company has best AI model end of 2025?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Official finance reference is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? (Dec 31, 2025)

Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?

Final answerResolved Dec 31, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?” resolved No on Dec 31, 2025, after $4.1M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Which company has best AI model end of 2025? event family.

ResolvedDec 31, 2025

Volume$4.1M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL+0.0%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Trending in Finance79%-3.5%$50.8KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Trending in Finance86.5%-4.0%$49.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Trending in Finance12.8%-3.8%$29.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $4.1M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

Dec 31, 2025No settlement with $4.1M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

December 31, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.05% (0.05¢)Observed

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