How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Jan 13, 2025 on Polymarket. Event family: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? — Resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?

Yes

Final answerResolved Jan 13, 2025

The crowd called it — 95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jan 13, 2025. Event family: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025? $171.5K traded before settlement. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?

ResolvedJan 13, 2025

Volume$171.5K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved Yes, with $171.5K traded before close.

Yes 95.0¢ALL+11.1%

Last observed Yes

95% (95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jan 13, 2025Yes settlement with $171.5K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

January 13, 2025 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price85.5% (85.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle90.5% (90.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price95% (95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score4 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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