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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Nov 22, 2024 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1?·#513582

Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1?

No
Final answerResolved Nov 22, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.6% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1?” resolved No on Nov 22, 2024, after $902.8K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedNov 22, 2024
Volume$902.8K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.4% (0.4¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 43.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 44-point move.

Yes 0.4¢ALL-99.1%
0¢12¢24¢36¢49¢11/2111/2111/22Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.4% (0.4¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · CultureThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Trending in Culture3.15%-0.9%$24.4KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Nov 22, 2024No settlement with $902.8K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
43 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 22, 2024 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price43.5% (43.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >20m views on day 1?
Same entity: RonaldoNo

Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >20m views on day 1?

Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >20m views on day 1? · $3.0M traded · Nov 22, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: RonaldoYes

Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1?

MrBeast x Ronaldo video # views on day 1? · $2.6M traded · Dec 1, 2024

Open resolved page
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle19.5% (19.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.4% (0.4¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.6%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score19 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
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