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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Feb 13, 2025 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Who will be Trump's Health & Human Services Secretary? ·#513076

Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?

Yes
Final answerResolved Feb 13, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?” resolved Yes on Feb 13, 2025, after $714.0K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Who will be Trump's Health & Human Services Secretary? event family.

ResolvedFeb 13, 2025
Volume$714.0K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes99.95% (99.95¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 67.15% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 33-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+26.0%
63¢72¢82¢91¢100¢1/151/201/251/302/52/102/13Lowest pointSettled

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.25%0.0%$273.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending in Politics7.55%+0.2%$249.6KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics85.5%+3.0%$242.2KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Feb 13, 2025Yes settlement with $714.0K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

February 13, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price79.3% (79.3¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Same entity: Donald TrumpNo

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $127.7M traded · Mar 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2024 · $1.5B traded · Nov 6, 2024

Open resolved page
Spike signal
33 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle99% (99¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Will Trump release Epstein files by...? · $90.9M traded · Dec 24, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Who will be inaugurated as President? · $400.4M traded · Jan 20, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Winner 2024 · $119.9M traded · Nov 11, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election? · $76.9M traded · Oct 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $59.9M traded · Mar 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive