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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Nov 17, 2024 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Colts vs. Jets·#512654

Colts vs. Jets

Yes
Final answerResolved Nov 17, 2024

A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (17% confidence) right before it settled.

“Colts vs. Jets” resolved Yes on Nov 17, 2024, after $568.2K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedNov 17, 2024
Volume$568.2K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Colts vs. Jets
Market image
Yes
Last observed Yes17% (17¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 17% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 83-point move.

Yes 17.0¢ALL-55.8%
14¢21¢28¢34¢41¢11/1111/1711/17Lowest pointSettled

Last observed Yes

17% (17¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now77.5%-7.0%$356.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$304.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.35%0.0%$278.6KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Nov 17, 2024Yes settlement with $568.2K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.5¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 17, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price38.5% (38.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025?
Same entity: ColtsNo

Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $26.8M traded · Dec 30, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: JetsNo

Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?

AFC Champion · $18.5M traded · Dec 9, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Colts
Spike signal
22 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.5¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle35.5% (35.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price17% (17¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty83%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score18 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.5¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
No

Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?

AFC Champion · $18.2M traded · Dec 30, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: JetsNo

Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $13.4M traded · Dec 9, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: ColtsNo

Colts vs. Chiefs

Colts vs. Chiefs · $7.8M traded · Nov 23, 2025

Open resolved page
Same topic: NFLNo

Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $139.3M traded · Dec 16, 2024

Open resolved page
Same topic: NFLNo

Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?

Super Bowl Champion 2025 · $124.0M traded · Nov 30, 2024

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive