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Resolved answer·Fed decision in January?·#512320

Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

No
Final answerResolved Jan 29, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jan 29, 2025. Event family: Fed decision in January? $48.8M traded before settlement. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

ResolvedJan 29, 2025
Volume$48.8M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketOpen Fed sourceBrowse related resolved
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-88.9%
Yes0.1¢No100.0¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢12/311/31/71/101/131/251/29Settled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

FOMC consensus context

This was a policy-meeting consensus market: traders had already priced No as the dominant public expectation before the FOMC result. Federal Reserve FOMC calendar is the right external anchor, while the archived curve shows whether the crowd ever seriously doubted the outcome.

Federal Reserve FOMC calendarsource linked

Official policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.

Open Fed source
Crowd state
ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.
Public anchor
Federal Reserve FOMC calendarOfficial policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.
Resolved
Jan 29, 2025No settlement with $48.8M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

January 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price0.45% (0.45¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Same eventNo

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $57.0M traded · Jan 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $42.8M traded · Jan 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Public contextFederal Reserve FOMC calendarObservedOfficial policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.Open Fed source
Same eventNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $21.2M traded · Jan 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Same eventYes

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $21.0M traded · Jan 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Federal ReserveNo

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in March? · $173.0M traded · Mar 18, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Federal ReserveNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $235.1M traded · Jan 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Federal ReserveNo

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in March? · $87.1M traded · Mar 18, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive