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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Nov 23, 2024 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?·#512184

Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?

No
Final answerResolved Nov 23, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?” resolved No on Nov 23, 2024, after $485.2K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary? event family.

ResolvedNov 23, 2024
Volume$485.2K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketOpen filing sourceBrowse related resolved
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.1% (0.1¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 22% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 22-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.5%
0¢6¢12¢18¢25¢11/711/911/1211/1411/1711/1911/2111/23Peak convictionSettled

Last observed Yes

0.1% (0.1¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics81.5%+4.0%$861.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics17.65%+3.7%$497.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending in Politics7.75%-1.0%$493.4KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.
Resolved
Nov 23, 2024No settlement with $485.2K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 23, 2024 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price22% (22¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Same entity: Donald TrumpNo

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $127.7M traded · Mar 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2024 · $1.5B traded · Nov 6, 2024

Open resolved page
Spike signal
22 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.4% (0.4¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.9%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Public contextOfficial finance referenceObservedOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.Open filing source
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Will Trump release Epstein files by...? · $90.9M traded · Dec 24, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Who will be inaugurated as President? · $400.4M traded · Jan 20, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Winner 2024 · $119.9M traded · Nov 11, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election? · $76.9M traded · Oct 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $59.9M traded · Mar 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive