Movement
Large downward reprice
The market sat near 37.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 38-point move.
The archived price moved 37 points between the stored anchor and settlement.
Anchor price
37.5% (37.5¢)
Saved surprise score
Settled No
0% (0¢)
Final Yes price
Swing
37 pts
Yes probability
Last observed Yes
0.55% (0.55¢)
Settled result
No
Context
Headline and statement context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.
Open official resultsThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.8¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
November 6, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
