How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Nov 8, 2024 on Polymarket. Event family: October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC).

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. National Weather Service is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C? (Nov 8, 2024)

Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C?

Final answerResolved Nov 8, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C?” resolved No on Nov 8, 2024, after $453.4K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC) event family.

ResolvedNov 8, 2024

Volume$453.4K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Large downward reprice

The market sat near 40.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 41-point move.

Large downward reprice

The archived price moved 41 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Peak Yes

40.5% (40.5¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

41 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now77.5%-7.0%$356.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$304.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.35%0.0%$278.6KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

National Weather Servicesource linked

Official U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Open weather source

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

National Weather ServiceOfficial U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Resolved

Nov 8, 2024No settlement with $453.4K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 8, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price40.5% (40.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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