How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Nov 5, 2024 on Polymarket. Event family: Who will 538 predict to win the election?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Yes — Who will 538 predict to win the election? (Nov 5, 2024)

Who will 538 predict to win the election?

Yes

Final answerResolved Nov 5, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Who will 538 predict to win the election?” resolved Yes on Nov 5, 2024, after $475.3K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedNov 5, 2024

Volume$475.3K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

No-to-Yes turn

The market sat near 8% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 92-point move.

No-to-Yes turn

Yes fell to 8% before the market settled Yes at 100%, a 92-point reversal.

Lowest Yes

8% (8¢)

Curve low

Settled Yes

100% (100¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

92 pts

Yes probability

Yes 99.9¢ALL+49.1%

Last observed Yes

99.9% (99.9¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics77.5%-7.0%$356.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending in Politics2.25%+0.1%$304.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$278.6KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Nov 5, 2024Yes settlement with $475.3K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.2¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

92 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.2¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 5, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price67% (67¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle9.5% (9.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle99.9% (99.9¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price99.9% (99.9¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.9%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score90 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.2¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

No-to-Yes turn

The market sat near 8% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 92-point move.

No-to-Yes turn

Yes fell to 8% before the market settled Yes at 100%, a 92-point reversal.

Lowest Yes

8% (8¢)

Curve low

Settled Yes

100% (100¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

92 pts

Yes probability

Yes 99.9¢ALL+49.1%

Last observed Yes

99.9% (99.9¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Nov 5, 2024Yes settlement with $475.3K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.2¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

92 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.2¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 5, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price67% (67¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle9.5% (9.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle99.9% (99.9¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price99.9% (99.9¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.9%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score90 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.2¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive