How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Nov 1, 2024 on Polymarket. Event family: Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Federal Reserve FOMC calendar is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? (Nov 1, 2024)

Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?

Final answerResolved Nov 1, 2024

The crowd called it — 66% confident in No just before settlement.

“Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?” resolved No on Nov 1, 2024, after $517.2K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedNov 1, 2024

Volume$517.2K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 73% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 73-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 73% before the market settled No at 0%, a 73-point reversal.

Peak Yes

73% (73¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

73 pts

Yes probability

Yes 34.0¢ALL-53.4%

Last observed Yes

34% (34¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics77.5%-7.0%$356.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending in Politics2.25%+0.1%$304.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$278.6KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

FOMC expectation shift

This was a policy-meeting market, so public opinion should be read against the FOMC schedule and statement path rather than generic social chatter. $517.2K traded before settlement.

Federal Reserve FOMC calendarsource linked

Official policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.

Open Fed source

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Federal Reserve FOMC calendarOfficial policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.

Resolved

Nov 1, 2024No settlement with $517.2K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 1, 2024 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price73% (73¢)Observed

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