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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Nov 7, 2024 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?·#500924

Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?

No
Final answerResolved Nov 7, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.55% confident in No just before settlement.

“Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?” resolved No on Nov 7, 2024, after $1.1M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedNov 7, 2024
Volume$1.1M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketOpen official resultsBrowse related resolved
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.45% (0.45¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

Large downward reprice

The market sat near 40% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 40-point move.

Large downward reprice

The archived price moved 40 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Peak Yes

40% (40¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

40 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.4¢ALL-98.9%
0¢11¢22¢34¢45¢10/911/711/7Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.45% (0.45¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics77.5%-7.0%$327.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending in Politics2.25%+0.1%$302.3KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.5%-0.1%$281.1KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultssource linked

Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Open official results
Crowd state
RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.
Resolved
Nov 7, 2024No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 7, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price40% (40¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Same entity: Donald TrumpNo

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $127.7M traded · Mar 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2024 · $1.5B traded · Nov 6, 2024

Open resolved page
Spike signal
40 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.5% (0.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.45% (0.45¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.45% (0.45¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.55%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Public contextNational Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsObservedOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.Open official results
Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Will Trump release Epstein files by...? · $90.9M traded · Dec 24, 2025

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Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Who will be inaugurated as President? · $400.4M traded · Jan 20, 2025

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Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Winner 2024 · $119.9M traded · Nov 11, 2024

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Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election? · $76.9M traded · Oct 18, 2024

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Same entity: Donald TrumpYes

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $59.9M traded · Mar 4, 2026

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Browse the full resolved archive