How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Jul 5, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: ITF Tokyo: Matthew Dellavedova vs Sanhui Shin.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Set Handicap: Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Shin (+1.5) — Resolved market

Set Handicap: Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Shin (+1.5)

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 5, 2026

A close one — the market was only 42% confident in Yes at the close.

Outcome: Yes on Jul 5, 2026. Event family: ITF Tokyo: Matthew Dellavedova vs Sanhui Shin. $20 traded before settlement. Question: Set Handicap: Dellavedova (-1.5) vs Shin (+1.5).

ResolvedJul 5, 2026

Volume$20

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 42.0¢ALL-1.2%

Yes42.0¢No58.0¢

Last observed Yes

42% (42¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 42% confident in Yes at the close.

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 5, 2026Yes settlement with $20 traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price42.5% (42.5¢)Observed

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