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Resolved answer·Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET·#2785292

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Yes
Final answerResolved Jul 4, 2026

A close one — the market was only 50% confident in Yes at the close.

Outcome: Yes on Jul 4, 2026. Event family: Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET. $1.0K traded before settlement. Question: Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET.

ResolvedJul 4, 2026
Volume$1.0K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketOpen resolution sourceBrowse related resolved
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes50% (50¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 50.0¢ALL+0.0%
Yes50.0¢No50.0¢
46¢48¢50¢52¢54¢7/37/4Settled

Last observed Yes

50% (50¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 50% confident in Yes at the close.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jul 4, 2026Yes settlement with $1.0K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 30¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
30¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
Same contract familyYes

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET · $2.5K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET · $1.7K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price50% (50¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty50%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread30¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same contract familyYes

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET · $1.6K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET · $1.5K traded · Jul 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET · $1.4K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET · $909 traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET · $889 traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive