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Resolved answer·Miami Marlins vs. Athletics·#2771424

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5

Yes
Final answerResolved Jul 4, 2026

The crowd called it — 95.5% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jul 4, 2026. Event family: Miami Marlins vs. Athletics. $178.1K traded before settlement. Question: Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5.

ResolvedJul 4, 2026
Volume$178.1K
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketOpen resolution sourceBrowse related resolved
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes95.5% (95.5¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 51.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 49-point move.

Yes 95.5¢ALL+85.4%
47¢60¢73¢87¢100¢7/37/47/47/47/47/47/47/47/4Lowest pointSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

95.5% (95.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 95.5% confident in Yes just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jul 4, 2026Yes settlement with $178.1K traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $3.8K closing liquidity.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 4, 2026 at 3:15 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price51.5% (51.5¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
Same contract familyYes

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics · $4.5K traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-2.5)

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics · $85 traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract family
Spike signal
44 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$3.8KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
17 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle51.5% (51.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle90% (90¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price95.5% (95.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty95.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score44 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$3.8KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
No

1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5)

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics · $28 traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyYes

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics · $5 traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyYes

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics · $5 traded · Jul 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Miami MarlinsNo

Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series?

World Series Champion 2025 · $4.0M traded · Sep 26, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: AthleticsNo

Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series?

World Series Champion 2025 · $3.8M traded · Sep 18, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive