How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Jul 3, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Set 2 Winner: Hurkacz vs Paul — Resolved market

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved Yes, with $9.0K traded before close.

Archive movement view

Observed checkpoints

Stored checkpoints still sketch the close

This market no longer has a full preserved curve, but the archive still keeps the last meaningful checkpoints into settlement.

Final outcome

Yes

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closing spread

0.1¢

Settlement-adjacent bid-ask quality

Closing liquidity

$92.7K

Last preserved book depth

Source anchor

Original Polymarket market

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

First archived

99.95%

Earliest preserved observation

24h before

99.95%

Stored checkpoint one day before settlement

1h before

99.95%

Stored checkpoint one hour before settlement

Last observed

99.95%

Closest archived price before settlement

Settled

100%

Final recorded outcome: Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 4, 2026

Hurkacz

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $9.0K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 3, 2026Yes settlement with $9.0K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $92.7K closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price99.95% (99.95¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.